Elo score boom

pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#21 » 27 Apr 2017, 17:46

Playerbase shrinking, average raising in top league

Code: Select all

Grand Master League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 122

Demotion Score: 1300
Promotion Score: - (top league)
XP
Average: 949273 (LVL 7)
Median: 257953 (LVL 7)
Min: 40891 (LVL 4)
Max: 10771448 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1546
Median: 1491
Min: 1319
Max: 2120

Last update: 2017-04-27 17:31:38



Master League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 62

Demotion Score: 1200
Promotion Score: 1400
XP
Average: 168972 (LVL 7)
Median: 132969 (LVL 6)
Min: 31669 (LVL 3)
Max: 1956760 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1294
Median: 1293
Min: 1204
Max: 1382


Diamond League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 79

Demotion Score: 1100
Promotion Score: 1300
XP
Average: 82663 (LVL 5)
Median: 62862 (LVL 4)
Min: 15438 (LVL 3)
Max: 608286 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1192
Median: 1195
Min: 1102
Max: 1295



Platinum League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 158

Demotion Score: 1000
Promotion Score: 1200
XP
Average: 33279 (LVL 3)
Median: 17713 (LVL 3)
Min: 4224 (LVL 1)
Max: 260620 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1102
Median: 1106
Min: 1004
Max: 1195
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#22 » 27 Apr 2017, 19:35

sad news. I would love to see this game getting more attention!

pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#23 » 27 Apr 2017, 20:20

I suppose it is a combination of "no it is too difficult" "nice but if I have to study it I do something else" that keep away many players. But that is normal, see the turn over of chess players.

Just the game has to find continuously interested players, it is obvious that the target is a niche target.
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pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#24 » 01 May 2017, 00:56

In the last week seems that the trend of the match activity is going downwards, especially the last week, seems that a sort of "pokemon go" was released since the match dropped a lot, I do not know, I'm guessing. (how can people leave gladiabots, it is the only game that I play when I play)

or maybe a bug in counting games?
Or maybe server hiccups?

Luckily GFX gives the data of the match activity directly in the html source page (please don't hide it!), so I may use it to produce some trends as soon as possible.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Gladiabots/wiki/players/pier4r_nvidia_shield_k1 -> Gladiabots CHAT, stats, insights and more ;

pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#25 » 01 May 2017, 23:50

On a side note the trend of matches activity is going slowly downwards. I assume that this is due to the fact that the playerbase it is stabilizing. This because gladiabots (a) it is not appealing everyone, like not everyone wants to solve problems in his/her free time; (b) has to compete with other games of problem solving (chess is one of those); (c) has a documentation gap that people have to fill reading on the forum, and people are lazy like me; (d) is not free anymore and people are cheap like me, buying samsung s8 for 700€ and then crying for 3 € of a game; (e) the game receives boost at every update, but between updates it is stable (except when google sponsored it but then the game got removed for a while, burning chances) ; (f) even if people likes to solve the game, not everyone likes competition because it shows weaknesses and hurts elo ; (g) the current XP levels may frustrate newcomers although the XP levels are way shorter than before, playing against a sniper without it is annoying I assume; (h) I wrote enough, I have a couple of more points but are marginal.

So, I quickly computed an estimation line (regression) with my hp 50g using highcharts.com (thanks evilgenius) instead of excel, libreoffice draw, gnuplot, whatever program for graphs (the hp50g can do it, but without colors).

I thank once again GFX not only for providing the matches dump and the player dump, but also the values directly in the javascript on the stats page (I hope it won't change, because it is neat).
Attachments
highchart_gladiabots_matches_activity.png
highchart_gladiabots_matches_activity.png (86.83 KiB) Viewed 638 times
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pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#26 » 18 May 2017, 15:08

so after the average in the top league raised from about 1520 to about 1540h now it is stable since a while (I did not make records in those days)

Also before the playerbase active in the last week in the playerbase was around 150 players, now it is 115. With all the other leagues shrinking as well. In short we are going back to the same number pre alpha 7.8 but at that time the game was free, so I would say it is not bad.

Code: Select all

Grand Master League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 119

Demotion Score: 1300
Promotion Score: - (top league)
XP
Average: 1047249 (LVL 7)
Median: 270727 (LVL 7)
Min: 58151 (LVL 4)
Max: 12555083 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1541
Median: 1492
Min: 1314
Max: 2118

Master League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 35

Demotion Score: 1200
Promotion Score: 1400
XP
Average: 122626 (LVL 6)
Median: 114859 (LVL 6)
Min: 50217 (LVL 4)
Max: 418603 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1303
Median: 1300
Min: 1213
Max: 1388

Diamond League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 58

Demotion Score: 1100
Promotion Score: 1300
XP
Average: 80729 (LVL 5)
Median: 66855 (LVL 5)
Min: 16089 (LVL 3)
Max: 610077 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1185
Median: 1192
Min: 1109
Max: 1271

Platinum League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 102

Demotion Score: 1000
Promotion Score: 1200
XP
Average: 37243 (LVL 4)
Median: 22853 (LVL 3)
Min: 6165 (LVL 2)
Max: 502241 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1111
Median: 1112
Min: 1007
Max: 1198
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#27 » 18 May 2017, 17:31

I still promote the game among my friends... And quickly get a full-stop, realizing that the game is not free anymore. 50% of my friends say, "You have the game, right? Send me the APK file." And then I explain that it's unlocked through IAP. (Pretty effective, now that I come to think of it. 'Premium' games can be easily obtained. Gladiabots Monetization System is way more secure.) The other 50% of my friends, when I explain the IAP thing, say, "I'll hack/patch it." They contribute to the banned people community.
Fixes break an AI more than bugs do. :ugeek:

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pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#28 » 18 May 2017, 18:33

well this is the mindset in certain community. In Italy sometimes it is the same. They buy hardware of 2000 euro and then they are cheap to buy a game. (whatever, even 10 euro)

It happens.
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pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#29 » 28 May 2017, 11:19

Shrinking! (not so bad, but almost)

Notice that the average in top league is not growing, it is still 1540-ish. This means: if the average is almost the same and the number of players is going down, the total point hold in the league is going down so there are less points to be accumulated in the top1, top2, top3, top4, etc.

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Grand Master League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 99

Demotion Score: 1300
Promotion Score: - (top league)
XP
Average: 1094088 (LVL 7)
Median: 252811 (LVL 7)
Min: 68952 (LVL 5)
Max: 13509623 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1543
Median: 1478
Min: 1300
Max: 2135


Master League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 31

Demotion Score: 1200
Promotion Score: 1400
XP
Average: 142840 (LVL 6)
Median: 131007 (LVL 6)
Min: 44454 (LVL 4)
Max: 433641 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1292
Median: 1286
Min: 1205
Max: 1372

Diamond League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 57

Demotion Score: 1100
Promotion Score: 1300
XP
Average: 96182 (LVL 5)
Median: 62465 (LVL 4)
Min: 16391 (LVL 3)
Max: 720343 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1195
Median: 1204
Min: 1105
Max: 1265

Platinum League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 78

Demotion Score: 1000
Promotion Score: 1200
XP
Average: 35832 (LVL 4)
Median: 26205 (LVL 3)
Min: 5499 (LVL 2)
Max: 220050 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1107
Median: 1110
Min: 1005
Max: 1189
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#30 » 29 May 2017, 13:36

It's summer now, for the most people a reason to catch a sunburnt-ache and not to sit on the inside. This is a strong reason for less gamers. Wait for the autumn.
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pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#31 » 29 May 2017, 16:59

Well some other games, like in world of tanks, note this less. But yeah surely it is a cause.
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pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#32 » 06 Jun 2017, 11:40

GM is still losing some players but the lower leagues are growing again. Also thanks (I believe) to the more intensive actions allowed by the new cool down.

The point is, if one has few hours available to play the game, one does not want to hang around waiting, and the new cooldowns allow more intensive sessions (in the right hours). Even 2 players spamming can fill the "will to play" of each other.

So it is possible that the players out of GM enjoy this.

The problem is Gm because the newcomers (especially if they have XP level lower than 6) meet a very hard wall to climb.

As usual I think that promotion to GM either brings unlocking (so at least promotion up to XP level 6), or one is blocked to enter GM until he is level XP level 6. In short one needs a sniper to feel less disadvantage (The kid punisher shown that all assaults can be done, but still).

See: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=724

Code: Select all

Grand Master League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 92

Demotion Score: 1300
Promotion Score: - (top league)
XP
Average: 1272926 (LVL 7)
Median: 376544 (LVL 7)
Min: 59320 (LVL 4)
Max: 14841499 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1558
Median: 1487
Min: 1305
Max: 2131

Master League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 38

Demotion Score: 1200
Promotion Score: 1400
XP
Average: 174932 (LVL 7)
Median: 129955 (LVL 6)
Min: 22380 (LVL 3)
Max: 1642627 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1307
Median: 1307
Min: 1224
Max: 1385

Diamond League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 61

Demotion Score: 1100
Promotion Score: 1300
XP
Average: 97247 (LVL 5)
Median: 56351 (LVL 4)
Min: 13351 (LVL 2)
Max: 967782 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1191
Median: 1195
Min: 1103
Max: 1286

Platinum League
Stats | Leaderboard | Matches Activity | Latest Matches
Active players (1 week): 94

Demotion Score: 1000
Promotion Score: 1200
XP
Average: 29579 (LVL 3)
Median: 17310 (LVL 3)
Min: 4803 (LVL 1)
Max: 181941 (LVL 7)
Score
Average: 1111
Median: 1108
Min: 1007
Max: 1185

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pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#33 » 18 Jun 2017, 17:07

active players still going down except for top league (maybe real active players get in GM very quickly, draining from other leagues?)

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# GM
Active players (1 week): 107

Demotion Score: 1300
Promotion Score: - (top league)
XP
Average: 1175011 (LVL 22)
Median: 302549 (LVL 11)
Min: 50250 (LVL 5)
Max: 15244453 (LVL 78)
Score
Average: 1553
Median: 1484
Min: 1327
Max: 2128

Last update: 2017-06-18 17:05:39

#master
Active players (1 week): 39

Demotion Score: 1200
Promotion Score: 1400
XP
Average: 151976 (LVL 8)
Median: 138212 (LVL 7)
Min: 38403 (LVL 4)
Max: 413104 (LVL 13)
Score
Average: 1291
Median: 1294
Min: 1207
Max: 1366

#diamond
Active players (1 week): 48

Demotion Score: 1100
Promotion Score: 1300
XP
Average: 94821 (LVL 6)
Median: 64410 (LVL 5)
Min: 15468 (LVL 3)
Max: 1171991 (LVL 22)
Score
Average: 1204
Median: 1215
Min: 1104
Max: 1299

#platinum
Active players (1 week): 70

Demotion Score: 1000
Promotion Score: 1200
XP
Average: 35007 (LVL 4)
Median: 21189 (LVL 3)
Min: 4935 (LVL 1)
Max: 282290 (LVL 11)
Score
Average: 1110
Median: 1113
Min: 1013
Max: 1199
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pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#34 » 18 Jun 2017, 17:51

I am interested in the "elo economy" and slowly I formulate useful questions that help me to gain insights over it. See more here.

One of those question is "is there really an inflation that will let the scores to explode?" , although the best score so far , 2285, broke the previous record only after months. I was thinking that 2300 would have happened sooner - In February - but instead it is quite difficult to get there. So if there is an inflation it is not so big.

Therefore I started to see the elo as a currency exchanged with dynamic exchange rates.

So I thought if there is inflation, or better "the rich ones get richer", it is true that since the score (or elo) is not created out of thin air in an exchange then the group of people with higher scores are harvesting the group of people with lower scores to get "richer", or higher.

So, focusing on GM, I collected a quite large sample of stats..

89396 Games completed between the dates: 2017-05-02 07:05:25 and 2017-06-17 09:08:56 , Paris time.

The I asked the database. How much is the difference of points exchanged between people with 1400 or higher score and people with 1300 or lower score?

An example to clarify what I mean.
PlayerA 1380 vs playerB 1420 : playerB wins gaining 8 points
playerA 1380 vs playerC 1410 : playerA wins gaining 12 points
playerD 1350 vs playerE 1400: playerE wins gaining 8 points.

The net trade, or difference, is "the group with 1400 or more points" gained 4 points (8+8 - 12 ).

Now it is true that a player can sometimes appear in the group of "lower than 1400" and sometimes in the group "higher than 1400" but it does not matter much because the flow of points will show nevertheless a trend. The same can be said for players that go inactive therefore holding their points outside the flow because no other player can gain or lose points against inactive players.

So in the sample checked there were 7906 games between player under 1400 and players with 1400+ points and the trade of points is in favor of those with 1400+ points. This group gained 4742 net points.

Then I asked the same for the 1500+ group (therefore players up to 1499 points counted as "poor" in this case). Still the net trade is positive. The group 1500+ extracted from the group 1499- , 794 points in 13464 games. One can see that while the flow is positive, it shrank a lot. It is not that a lot of points flow from 1499- to players above their score.

Then I asked, how is the flow between players 1600+ and players 1599- ? Still positive (so, points "flow" upwards). 917 points gained in 15491 games.

Then the surprise started. I know that the elo is awesome and it is not forgiving. If one has a score way higher than another player, he needs to win really a lot and to keep the score, not even increasing it, one has to lose a little. But I did not expect what I found.

The players of the group 1700+ actually lose points to the players below them. There is no harvesting! They have lost 757 points in 15920 games.

The negative trend continues. (so, no harvesting)

1800+ vs 1799- : 1082 points lost in 14259 games
1900+ vs 1899- : 1388 points lost in 11534 games
2000+ vs 1999- : 1524 points lost in 7202 games
2100+ vs 2099-: 1192 points lost in 2703 games
2200+ vs 2199-: 180 points lost in 373 games (indeed at this time there is no 2200+ in the leaderboard, not even inactive)

So what one can derive from this and the rest of the observations in many other threads? Surely that if there is a player with a very high score compared to all the others, that player has outstanding tactics compared to the active playerbase (not compared to the inactive or the future playerbase) but it does not mean that when there are more players with "high" scores (like many 2000+) the quality is lower.

This also means that to keep high scores is very difficult, since there is a negative trade of points from the high score regions (the sweet spot is around 1700 points. "Easy" to take juicy points from the top and from the bottom), and I would say that to keep an high score one has to "harvest" other high score players rather than low score players, otherwise, one can see, the trade will end up being negative and the score level will be quickly lost.

So if before I thought the process was like:
1400 gets farmed by 1500, 1500 gets farmed by 1600, 1600 gets farmed by 1700, 1700 gets famed by 1800, 1800 gets farmed by 1900, 1900 gets farmed by 2000, 2000 gets farmed by 2100.

Now it is more likely that 1800, 1900, 2000+ gets farmed by 1700, 1600 and 1500 while high scores are reached because 1800, 1900, 2000 exchange points between each other.

Anyway, more info on this in some time.
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pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#35 » 18 Jun 2017, 18:10

So the last bits.

2000+ vs 1800-2000: 552 points LOST in 1692 games (inverted harvsting, so 2000+ survive over other almost 2000+ that likely are sent back in the lower ranges)
1900-2000 vs 1700-1900: 281 points gained in 1618 games (there is some harvesting)
1800-1900 vs 1600-1800: 221 points gained in 1717 games
1700-1800 vs 1500-1700: 258 points gained in 2444 games
1600-1700 vs 1400-1600: 665 points gained in 3019 games
1600-1700 vs 2000-2300: 586 points gained in 1141 games.

So the real sweet range where the majority of the points seems to accumulate seems to be 1600-1700 . (considering also the previous post) Then some points flow upwards captured by few players able to hold 2000+ , while all the others may go up and then fall down again due to how the elo formula works.

Of course if another league would be created (like elite league) those flows will be altered.
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pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#36 » 20 Jun 2017, 23:09

I never recorded gold league (the starting league) but I never saw it under 1000 players since it was called so (alpha 7.x)

This means, unless players already in grand master stay active, it is going to be hard with serious scarcity of players. (I guess due to several factors, but one is, surely, the fact of the paywall)

I guess I gave to gladiabots something like 10 or 15 euro in total (from purchases and donations) that still are nothing compared to other games way less interesting. Still with a immediate paywall I would not have bought it without recommendations from reddit for example and the game does not appear on reddit often (I try to put it there and there sometimes. Someone should be actively suggesting it in the weekly suggestion thread in android gaming ).

But thanks to the wonder of asynchronous play (great idea!) we may go through this somehow.

Also note: 100+ players active in grand master, average again 1530-1540

Code: Select all

gm

Active players (1 week): 126

Demotion Score: 1300
Promotion Score: - (top league)
XP
Average: 1064415 (LVL 21)
Median: 278499 (LVL 11)
Min: 37510 (LVL 4)
Max: 15276020 (LVL 78)
Score
Average: 1535
Median: 1463
Min: 1317
Max: 2131

master

Active players (1 week): 43

Demotion Score: 1200
Promotion Score: 1400
XP
Average: 171403 (LVL 8)
Median: 122794 (LVL 7)
Min: 42890 (LVL 4)
Max: 1366165 (LVL 23)
Score
Average: 1302
Median: 1298
Min: 1204
Max: 1388


diamond
Active players (1 week): 52

Demotion Score: 1100
Promotion Score: 1300
XP
Average: 67632 (LVL 5)
Median: 59802 (LVL 5)
Min: 12041 (LVL 2)
Max: 213432 (LVL 9)
Score
Average: 1199
Median: 1209
Min: 1104
Max: 1299

platinum

Active players (1 week): 83

Demotion Score: 1000
Promotion Score: 1200
XP
Average: 59110 (LVL 5)
Median: 24118 (LVL 3)
Min: 4935 (LVL 1)
Max: 1233488 (LVL 22)
Score
Average: 1106
Median: 1107
Min: 1022
Max: 1199

gold
Active players (1 week): 744

Demotion Score: 900
Promotion Score: 1100
XP
Average: 3152 (LVL 1)
Median: 1229 (LVL 1)
Min: 222 (LVL 1)
Max: 228297 (LVL 10)
Score
Average: 989
Median: 983
Min: 901
Max: 1098
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pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#37 » 30 Jul 2017, 09:59

I stopped collecting stats also because in the middle of july the leagues changed.

Now I should start again (i have really to make a scraper...lazy me)

I wanted just to note that the activity of the early leagues collapsed, although the number of players was somehow constant in the last weeks

around 60 for bronze
around 380 for silver
around 70 for gold
around 45 platinum
around 40 diamond
around 25 master
around 20 grand master

This because, if you click on players in the early leagues, I think they do not feel ready and they are playing a lot of freeplay matches. This, or they think that freeplay is actually free.

The freeplay and ranked matches are not reported in the match activity history (I would say: that's right), so the leagues seems getting deserted.

Anyway it is clear that the game is not getting spread by mouth to mouth or automatic recommendations because there was a moment that the starting league had 3000 players active in a week, then it went down to 1200 for some weeks, but now collapsed down to 400. I remember clearly that there was a moment that from 1000+ we went down to 600+. Something happened but I cannot explain what.
Last edited by pier4r on 10 Aug 2017, 09:16, edited 1 time in total.
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pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#38 » 10 Aug 2017, 09:15

update

around 30 for bronze
around 270 for silver
around 40 for gold
around 35 platinum
around 25 diamond
around 20 master
around 20 grand master
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mcompany
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#39 » 10 Aug 2017, 11:15

Wow, that actually looks like a legitimate loss of players from viewtopic.php?f=7&t=854#p9786

pier4r
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Re: Elo score boom

Post#40 » 20 Aug 2017, 12:57

Still shrinking.

around 40 for bronze
around 210 for silver
around 40 for gold
around 25 platinum
around 30 diamond
around 10 master
around 20 grand master
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